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锁定万亿订单就能躺赚？这可能是AI产业链条上最大的“伪命题”！_我的网站

A |     财联社7月21日讯（编辑 潇湘）目前，一环套一环的巨额长期合同，已成为维系人工智能热潮的商业纽带。    Dhaka, Oct 12 (UNI) Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urged the countrymen to make all-out efforts so that Bangladesh never has to face any situation like famine and food insufficiency due to prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.

"We have soil and manpower. So, we have to take initiative from now on so that Bangladesh never has to face famine and food insufficiency-like situations. We will have to grow our food," she said.

The premier was virtually addressing a programme organised to hand over Bangabandhu Jatiya Krishi Puroshkar-1425 and 1426 (Bangla year), the highest state recognition in the agriculture sector, to 44 individuals and organizations in 10 categories, from her official Ganabhaban residence here.

The Ministry of Agriculture organised the function at the Osmani Memorial Auditorium here Wednesday morning.

The prime minister referred to her talks with the heads of the government and state of the different countries mostly developed ones at the United Nations General assembly in New York and in the funeral of Queen Elizabeth 11 in London.

She said during her talks with the world leaders, they apprehended that a famine or food insufficiency may hit the world in 2023 due to the war.

She said she doesn't think the war will end immediately as it benefits those who sell arms and some other countries despite commoners across the globe suffering immensely due to skyrocketing prices of goods and services for the war.

"I called upon the global community to take measures to stop the war and arrange food, treatment and education for the mankind, particularly for children," she said.

The premier said her government is working tirelessly to ensure food security for the countrymen, hoping that they would be successful in doing so, as they have effectively tackled the Covid-19 situation.

Referring to the remarks on not keeping a single inch of land uncultivated by Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, she urged the countrymen to grow food grains on whatever places they have.

She said, "We have to be self-reliant by growing food for ourselves and we have to give some produced grains to the neighbours."

Agriculture Minister Dr Muhammad Abdur Razzaque, Fisheries and Livestock Minister SM Rezaul Karim and Agriculture Ministry's Parliamentary Affairs Standing Committee Chairman and former Agriculture Minister Begum Matia Chowdhury spoke at the function.

Secretary of the Agriculture Ministry Md Sayedul Islam gave the welcome address while one of the award recipients, Sharmin Akhter expressed her feelings on behalf of the award winners.

UNI MAZ SY SHK1840。

B | 然而，眼下一个可能鲜有人思考过的问题是：如果这股热潮消退，这些合同还能紧密生效吗？          为AI提供算力的合同，已成为当前这股热潮中不可或缺的一部分，整个行业都正围绕这些合同进行重构布局。

C | AI供应商表示，这些协议使他们能够前所未有地清晰预见未来收入，从而通过承诺未来将实现创纪录的销售额和利润来打动投资者。         而存储芯片行业或许是其中最极致的缩影。近几个月来，存储厂商与其下游客户正频繁签订期限更长的供货协议。

D | 这一现象源于自主AI智能体的爆发式增长——这类应用对内存需求极高。这似乎正将历史上一个价格竞争激烈、周期性波动且竞争白热化的行业，转变为一个前景更加稳定的行业。         全球大型内存芯片制造商——韩国的三星电子和SK海力士，以及美国的美光科技——近期均创下了创纪录的利润，并宣称供应短缺预计将持续至2028年。

E | SK海力士的一位高管在4月与分析师的电话会议中表示，长期协议有望改善市场对内存业务整体的看法。         美光在达成此类协议方面尤为积极。其“战略客户协议”通常为期五年，且采用“照付不议”条款——这意味着无论买家是否实际接收内存产品，都必须支付货款。

F | 上个月，美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在财报电话会议上表示，未来几年这些协议将贡献公司超过一半的营收。         这对存储股的投资者来说似乎是个利好消息，而且今年以来这些股票的表现确实令人刮目相看——美光股价今年已上涨约三倍，SK海力士涨幅几乎与之相当，三星股价则翻了一番左右。         长期协议在萧条期未必会执行？          然而，尽管长期合同正在推动市场上涨，但人们眼下其实依然有理由质疑：在市场低迷时，这些合同能否提供任何确定性？          事实上，如果内存需求在供应合同到期前出现下滑，这些看似得到保障的合同，很可能会被重新谈判或推延。         因为强行发货的后果，不过是让芯片在客户的仓库里积灰，直到需求重新回暖。而届时，客户势必会优先消化库存而非采购新芯片，这反而会大幅拉长芯片厂商的业绩复苏周期。         此外，芯片供应商可能也不愿将产品强加给不想要的客户——尤其是当竞争对手表现得更加灵活时。将无人问津的存储芯片推入供应链，可能会损害长期的客户关系。         无需深入探究科技史，就能找到证据表明——在行业低迷时期，供应商往往会表现出对修改合同更为包容的态度。         在疫情期间的那场全球“芯片荒”中，类似的长期协议潮也曾上演。当时，芯片厂商借由这些长期合同筹集产能扩张资金，并以此作为分配紧缺产能的依据。         专注于汽车及电子设备核心部件微控制器(MCU)的Microchip Technology，早在2021年就推出了“优选供应商计划”。然而几年后，当芯片供给从缺口演变为过剩时，该计划便被迅速废除，客户纷纷获得履约豁免，“灵活变通”成为了行业的主基调，大量合同被顺延数年，客户也无需再硬着头皮兑现疫情期间许下的庞大采购承诺。         正如该公司董事长Steve Sanghi在去年11月直截了当地表态：“我们绝不会强迫客户购买任何他们不需要的东西。”          AI生态链被忽视的风险          可以预见到的是，如果AI狂热出现降温，极其相似的一幕大概率会再度上演。         然而，问题在于，眼下整个AI供应链的命运，却正深刻地绑定在这些因各家企业争相抢位而越签越大、越签越长的合同之上。

G |          这种现象其实早已蔓延至存储市场之外。

H | 诸如OpenAI、Anthropic这样的顶尖AI开发者与甲骨文、CoreWeave等算力云巨头绑定；这些云厂商转头又签订了采购AI计算设备的巨额订单。而作为设备核心的AI芯片供应商，则与台积电等代工厂签有专属制造协议；台积电的上游，又连结着与荷兰阿斯麦等设备巨头绑定的长期设备采购合同。         层层套娃下，涉及的金额往往极为庞大。         例如，甲骨文去年与OpenAI签署了一项巨额云计算协议，截至上一财季末，其所谓的“剩余履约义务”(RPO)——实质上是该公司尚未履行的合同已高达6380亿美元。甲骨文首席财务官Hilary Maxson上月向分析师表示，这一数字“为我们的未来营收增长提供了非凡的可见性，且全部由客户的长期合同承诺所支撑。”          在过去一年里，整个行业对这种长期合同的依赖呈指数级上升。

I | 自2025年年中以来，四大AI支出巨头——谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、亚马逊及甲骨文——的营收积压总额合计增长了一倍多，增加了逾1万亿美元。         然而，所有这些所谓的“业绩能见度”，随时都可能在一夜之间变得混沌不清；而这些庞大的长期合同，甚至可能成为加剧AI泡沫破裂的催化剂。

J |          国际清算银行在本月早些时候发布的年度经济报告中警示，整个AI供应链的阶段性短缺正在放大过度投资的风险——企业试图通过长期合同锁定未来产能，这反而让他们在面对任何不及预期的需求波动时，承担了更高的风险敞口。         换言之，那些基于这些长期合同就将真金白银押注给相关企业的借贷方与投资者们，恐怕随时会面临一场不设防的现实重击。         （财联社 潇湘）。

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Published on:03:16:25